Heating Season Is Approaching — What Prices Can We Expect This Winter?

Summer is coming to an end, and with the first cooler evenings, a question that affects almost every household returns:

How much will heating cost in the winter of 2026/2027?

No one can give a precise answer in August. Heating costs will depend not only on the weather, but also on energy prices, the geopolitical situation, fuel availability and existing supply contracts.

However, the first signals are already visible.

SPRK indicates that both natural gas and biomass costs are currently higher than a year ago. Following an escalation in the geopolitical situation, the price of natural gas in Europe reached its highest level since January 2023, while wood chip prices have risen to levels seen last winter.

The wood pellet market has also been under pressure this summer. In August, Latvijas Radio reported very high demand for solid fuels. Industry representatives noted that pellet prices had increased by approximately 50% over the year — from around €220/t to €300–350/t excluding VAT — while some producers were facing delivery times of several weeks.

This does not mean that heating will necessarily become more expensive everywhere in Latvia this winter. However, price uncertainty ahead of the new heating season remains significant.

A Cold Winter Will Cost More Regardless of the Heating System

There is one thing that no heating technology can change.

If outdoor temperatures remain very low for an extended period, a building loses more heat and requires more energy to maintain the desired indoor temperature.

This applies to all heating systems.

A pellet boiler will consume more pellets. District heating users will consume more heat energy. Electric and infrared heating systems will use more electricity. Buildings heated by heat pumps will also require more heat, while heat pump efficiency generally decreases at low outdoor temperatures.

So the important question is not only:

• “Which heating system consumes less?”

But also:

• “How predictable is the price of energy, and how much of our consumption can we control ourselves?”

The Price of Wood Pellets Depends on More Than Just the Cost of Wood

The price of wood pellets is determined by more than just the cost of raw materials.

Production costs, electricity prices, demand and logistics all play a role. Higher fuel prices can increase the cost of forestry operations and transporting raw materials, as well as the cost of delivering the finished product to customers.

A cold winter introduces another factor — both fuel consumption and overall market demand increase at the same time.

This summer in Latvia has already shown how quickly high demand can lead to delivery delays.

This does not mean that pellet heating is a bad solution. It simply shows that its costs are also influenced by several factors that homeowners cannot control themselves.

District Heating Varies from City to City

In August, SPRK approved increases in heat tariffs for nine regulated district heating companies, while tariffs were reduced for two.

This clearly shows why we cannot simply say that “heating in Latvia is becoming more expensive.”

The final cost of district heating depends on the fuel used, the price of purchased heat energy, infrastructure and the costs of the individual district heating provider.

But What About Electricity?

Wholesale electricity prices also fluctuate, and at certain times these fluctuations can be significant in the Baltic market.

However, for most Latvian households, daily changes in electricity exchange prices are not directly reflected in their bills.

SPRK data show that 74% of households had chosen fixed-price electricity contracts, while another 10% used the universal service, under which the electricity price is fixed for 12 months.

This means that for a large proportion of households, the electricity price component is known in advance for the duration of the contract.

A fixed electricity price does not mean a fixed heating bill. It means a more predictable energy price.

If the winter is very cold, energy consumption will increase. However, with a fixed-price contract, at least one significant part of the cost — the price of electricity — is already known for the contract period.

What Does This Mean for Infrared Heating?

A fixed electricity price does not, by itself, make electric heating cheap or expensive.

Final consumption depends on the building’s heat loss, weather conditions, the desired indoor temperature and how the heating system is controlled.

The same applies to infrared heating.

However, at a time when the prices of different energy sources are difficult to predict, the question is increasingly not only which type of heating is cheaper at a particular moment, but also:

• “Which heating costs can we predict and control more effectively?”

We will return to this question in future articles.

What Are We Actually Paying For?

When comparing different heating systems, it is very easy to focus on a single figure:

• the price of a MWh of gas, a tonne of pellets or a kWh of electricity.

But the price of energy itself is only part of the actual cost of heating.

We also need to consider:

🟧 ✓ initial investment

🟧 ✓ heating system and infrastructure costs

🟧 ✓ maintenance and repairs

🟧 ✓ fuel delivery and storage

🟧 ✓ electricity consumption of auxiliary equipment

🟧 ✓ system lifespan

🟧 ✓ the ability to control temperatures individually

🟧 ✓ energy consumed at times and in places where heat is not needed

Therefore, the cheapest energy source does not always mean the cheapest heating system.

To understand the real cost, we need to consider the entire life cycle of the heating system, not just the price of a single unit of energy.

What Can We Conclude Before the 2026/2027 Heating Season?

No one can say with certainty in August what the price of gas, wood pellets or electricity will be in the middle of winter. Nor can we know whether the winter will be relatively mild or whether we will experience a prolonged period of severe cold.

However, one conclusion is clear:

• The price of energy is only one part of what we actually pay for heat.

A cold winter will increase consumption regardless of whether a building is heated with pellets, gas, district heating, a heat pump or infrared heating.

Energy prices, system efficiency, maintenance costs and the ability to control consumption will differ.

That is why the next question is much more interesting than a simple price comparison:

• Why Is Heating Becoming More Expensive — and What Are We Actually Paying For?

That is exactly what we will look at in the next article.